Summary statistics

Column 1

Number of observations

1795

Success rate

Distribution across treatments

Column 2

Last update

September 24 2019

Success rate by treatment

Weeks

Column 1

Success rate by week of intake

Assignment probabilities

Column 2

Observations by treatment and week of intake

Assignment shares

Strata

Column 1

Success rate by stratum

Column 2

Distribution across strata

Tabulated data

The following tables have treatment in columns and strata in rows.

Column 1

Total number of observations

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 25 22 41 33
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 49 38 51 50
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 1 3 3 3
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 3 2 7 8
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 74 62 84 77
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 17 15 16 23
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 4 4 5 3
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 2 2 0 2
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 26 27 29 58
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 27 66 64 48
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 11 12 5 3
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 24 12 20 31
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 45 95 89 59
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 25 38 42 27
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 26 22 30 18
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 10 11 40 26

Column 2

Total number of successes

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 1 0 1 2
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 3 2 4 5
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0 0 0 1
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 1 1
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 2 0 1 0
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0 0 1 1
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 1 0 0 0
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 0 0
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0 0 0 4
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 1 6 8 6
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 1 3 1 0
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 1 0 0 3
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 1 6 4 1
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 3 4 3 2
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 1 1 1 0
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 4 2

Column 3

Success rates

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.04 0.00 0.02 0.06
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.06 0.05 0.08 0.10
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.12
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.04
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 NaN 0.00
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.04 0.09 0.12 0.12
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.09 0.25 0.20 0.00
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.10
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.02 0.06 0.04 0.02
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.12 0.11 0.07 0.07
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.00
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.08

Parameter estimates

Column 1

Posterior expectation of success probabilities

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.06
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.08
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.09
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.08
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.03
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.06
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.07
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.07
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.04 0.08 0.09 0.09
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.06 0.12 0.07 0.06
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.08
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.04 0.06 0.05 0.04
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.07 0.08 0.06 0.07
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.04 0.04 0.07 0.07

Column 2

Posterior probability for each treatment to be optimal, given stratum

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.20 0.09 0.20 0.51
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.11 0.14 0.22 0.53
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.13 0.17 0.18 0.52
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.12 0.18 0.28 0.42
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.39 0.07 0.36 0.19
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.12 0.13 0.37 0.39
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.29 0.18 0.20 0.32
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.16 0.22 0.27 0.35
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.10 0.07 0.17 0.66
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.03 0.23 0.30 0.44
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.08 0.61 0.16 0.14
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.14 0.11 0.13 0.62
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.11 0.49 0.26 0.14
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.21 0.41 0.14 0.24
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.20 0.28 0.27 0.25
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.09 0.11 0.41 0.39

Column 3

Current assignment probabilities

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.21 0.12 0.21 0.46
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.14 0.16 0.22 0.48
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.15 0.18 0.20 0.47
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.15 0.20 0.27 0.39
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.36 0.11 0.33 0.20
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.15 0.15 0.34 0.36
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.28 0.20 0.21 0.31
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.18 0.23 0.26 0.33
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.13 0.11 0.18 0.58
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.07 0.24 0.29 0.40
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.12 0.54 0.18 0.17
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.16 0.14 0.15 0.55
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.14 0.44 0.26 0.16
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.22 0.38 0.16 0.24
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.21 0.27 0.27 0.25
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.13 0.14 0.38 0.36

Inference, parameters

Column 2

90% credible sets for success probabilities

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp (0.01, 0.09) (0.00, 0.08) (0.02, 0.08) (0.03, 0.12)
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp (0.02, 0.09) (0.02, 0.11) (0.03, 0.11) (0.04, 0.14)
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp (0.01, 0.11) (0.00, 0.13) (0.01, 0.11) (0.03, 0.19)
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp (0.01, 0.10) (0.00, 0.14) (0.03, 0.14) (0.03, 0.16)
Syr,F,< HS,never emp (0.01, 0.07) (0.00, 0.05) (0.01, 0.07) (0.00, 0.06)
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp (0.01, 0.08) (0.00, 0.09) (0.02, 0.11) (0.02, 0.11)
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp (0.02, 0.13) (0.00, 0.13) (0.01, 0.11) (0.01, 0.14)
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp (0.01, 0.10) (0.00, 0.14) (0.02, 0.12) (0.01, 0.14)
Jor,M,< HS,never emp (0.01, 0.07) (0.00, 0.07) (0.01, 0.08) (0.03, 0.11)
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp (0.01, 0.09) (0.04, 0.13) (0.05, 0.14) (0.05, 0.16)
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp (0.02, 0.11) (0.04, 0.25) (0.03, 0.15) (0.01, 0.14)
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp (0.01, 0.09) (0.00, 0.10) (0.01, 0.09) (0.03, 0.14)
Jor,F,< HS,never emp (0.01, 0.07) (0.03, 0.10) (0.03, 0.08) (0.01, 0.08)
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp (0.03, 0.13) (0.03, 0.15) (0.03, 0.11) (0.03, 0.13)
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp (0.01, 0.09) (0.01, 0.11) (0.02, 0.09) (0.01, 0.10)
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp (0.01, 0.09) (0.00, 0.10) (0.04, 0.13) (0.03, 0.13)

Column 4

90% credible sets, plotted

Inference, treatment effects

Column 1

95% credible sets for population weighted average potential outcomes

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Column 2

95% credible sets for population weighted treatment contrasts against control

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Policy comparisons

Column 1

Point estimates

Comparison of the average potential outcomes for the actually chosen treatment assignment to the average that would have obtained under random assignment, \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1 &= \tfrac{1}{N} \sum_{i,t} \left ( \hat E\left [\theta^{D_{it} X_{it}} \right ] - \tfrac{1}{4} \sum_d \hat E\left [\theta^{d X_{it}}\right ] \right )\\ &=0.002 \end{align*}\]

Comparison of the optimal targeted policy, and the optimal non-targeted policy, to the default of (treatment \(0\)), \[\begin{align*} \Delta_2 &= \sum_x \left ( \max_d \hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x\\ &= 0.007, \\ \Delta_3 &= \max_d \sum_x \left (\hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x \\ &= 0. \end{align*}\]

Column 2

Credible sets

95% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.00, 0.00)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (-0.01, 0.03)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (0.00, 0.00) \end{align*}\]

90% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.00, 0.00)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (-0.01, 0.02)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (0.00, 0.00) \end{align*}\]

Source data

Source data, sorted by date